Time For A SERIOUS DISCUSSION About Tsunami Effects. . . .

[Bloofington]

Okay, it's not as though I'm an authority like some of my friends from "another web site" that I used to inhabit, but I can get this party started. By the way, if any of you are interested in "meeting" some of those folks, log on to http://www.cigarwise.com. Yes, I know it's primarily about cigars, but there are some very hard core coffee people there too.

Okay, so as not to throw the baby out with the bathwater, ONE of those hard core coffee people DOES in fact inhabit this web site on a somewhat regular basis, none other than our own Castle Crest. Our own Vince also knows a great deal about coffee, and being an ex-Navy guy knows the affected regions very well.

NOW, for the discussion. The recent and horrifying events of the South/Southeast Asia region, besides killing approximately 1 out of every 40,000 people on earth hit at a number of regions that are renowned for growing some of the world's most well-known and highly regarded coffees. Some that come immediately to mind are Indian Mysore, Celebes Kalossi and SUMATRAN Mandheling, and we all know what happened in Sumatra. Let's not forget Java Estate, also from Indonesia.

The above named coffees and many others are from prime growing regions in an area of the world that has literally had it's geography changed . . .

LITERALLY overnight, one week ago today!!!

So, will we ever see coffees from those regions again? What other coffees can you think of that might be affected by this tragedy? I'm trying to stick mostly to the topic here, but what makes me wonder even further besides the present heartbreak of human suffering is that many of the world's great foods, spices and such also come from these areas. The effects of this earthquake will be felt by the people of the entire world for years to come.

Will merchants jack up prices on the coffees I named immediately in order to recoup losses which are bound to come in the future? Could prices on these coffees double? Triple? What are these merchants going to do when they will no longer be stocking some of the world's best coffees? How will they fill the menu? What will be the quality of the products offered as replacements? Will people like myself who are bound to have their coffee drinking habits affected change those habits and replace some of their coffee drinking with perhaps, tea drinking? And don't forget about the great teas of the world that come from those areas.

The earthquake that occurred last week bringing such tragedy and suffering to that region of the world, has in fact produced a wave that we cannot see with the eye, not yet, but it's effect will be profound and long lasting. The world will have to adapt to the changes, as even people's eating and drinking patterns may be altered by this tragedy. The Bible speaks of the increase of earthquakes, famines and pestilences in our time, and this is just a harbinger of things to come.

Hang on, it's going to be a bumpy ride. 8)

 

[Guest]

Not to discount the human toll of this tragedy. I expect that the effect on coffee will be negligible. The damage caused by the tsunami is confined mostly to a strip of land about 1km to 3km wide along 250km of northern western coastline of Sumatra. The coffee plantations are farther inland and at higher elevations. There may have been some coffee operations in cities overrun by the tsunami but this is unlikely to have any effect on the overall production or price of Sumatra coffees. One of the other major exports from Indonesia is rubber. It is very possible that some groves of rubber trees may have been overrun by the tsunami.

Satellite Images of Sumatra

The Indonesian province of Aceh was hit hardest by the earthquake and tsunamis of December 26, 2004. Aceh is located on the northern tip of the island of Sumatra. ... The largest waves struck the northwestern coast of Sumatra. (elsewhere estimated at 15 meters high when it hit the coastline)... The town of Lhoknga, on the west coast of Sumatra near the capital of Aceh, Banda Aceh, was completely destroyed by the tsunami, with the exception of the mosque (white circular feature) in the city’s center.

In other photos on the same site they document that the tsunami swept up to 3000 meters inland over Banda Aceh.

 

[Bloofington]

Good points, but where are the people who are going to work there, assuming the work forces of those nations have been decimated, not to mention the nationwide attention being paid to cleanup and restoration.

 

[Guest]

Indonesia has a population of over 230 million and an unemployment rate of over 8%.
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/id.html
I doubt the death toll would have much long term effect on the economy even if it were ten times larger than currently reported.

 

[Bloofington]

Hmmmmm, yes, of course, those nations do contain vast numbers of people, many of them barely able to live. Well, then perhaps coffee distributors will use the tragedy to pull the wool over the eyes of the ignorant Euros and Americans who buy the coffees from over there. I know the Hurricane Gilbert excuse was being used ten years later to explain the rarity and expense of a pound of Jamaican Blue Mountain coffee.

 

[Guest]

I know the Hurricane Gilbert excuse was being used ten years later to explain the rarity and expense of a pound of Jamaican Blue Mountain coffee.

Hurricane Gilbert struck in September 1998(I had just checked the NWS site for the date and track then fat fingered it when typing)1988 the eye wall skirted the southern coastline of Jamaca. I remember reading that vast numbers of coffee trees on the lower slopes and up on the mountain had been uprooted. Some of these trees were replanted but large numbers had to be replaced with saplings. Most any fruit tree will take a few years to reach a desired output after planting. JBM is always in high demand so anything that constrains production will drive up the price. Destruction of the coffee trees is not an issue with the tsunami. This was a major earthquake on a subduction zone. One volcano in the Indian administrated Andaman and Nicobar Islands has erupted since the quake and it seems likely that the events are related. These islands are north of Sumatra along the same subduction zone. Sumatra has 34 volcanos according to a USGS map I've examined so there is a possibility for volcanic activity playing a role in coffee production.

I've been reading on the net that the northern provence of Sumatra, Aceh, was a home to a sepratist insurgent movement. The deaths of many thousands of people in this region could cripple significant parts of the insurgent movement. Do not be surprised if the Indonesian military takes advantage of this disaster to dispose of more insurgents. This article provides some background on the war: Casualties of the War in Aceh

 

[Bloofington]

Just for anyone reading djl's last post, his point about trees taking time to mature is correct, but Hurricane Gilbert struck in 1988, not 1998. That's why I made a reference to Jamaican Blue Mountain, although his point is well taken. Further to that point, I actually didn't have any decent Jamaican Blue Mountain until the past year, so perhaps it did take ten or more years for that to recover, and last year marked 15 since Gilbert struck. In the meantime, since the mid-90's the price has gone from about $25 a pound to at least $40, often more.

 

[Switchblade45]

I would add to the Big Wave effect:
From what I have seen, most of the people affected by this tragic event, were either residents, workers, or tourists who worked, and lived, or played in and around resort area where the wave impacted. Sumatran Mandheling, as well as other coffees in teh region, will more than likely stay evenly priced. If their respective governments see fit to add to the cost through some way, then it may go up.
I have a friend at the local Borders who gets me Sumatra Mandheling in my espresso roast, so I am sure if it goes up, I will indeed feel the effect.

 

[Bloofington]

I CAN see this happening. These countries are very poor, with tourism being a major portion of their economies. Having now had a great deal of that part of their GNP wiped out, at least for the immediate future, they might command exporters to raise prices on cash crops like coffee in order to help these nations' economies recover.

 

[Bloofington]

We may have an answer of sorts. I stopped by the Grand Central Terminal location of my favorite coffee shop yesterday, Oren's Daily Roast, and they have a message relative to the recent tsunami effects. A small sign posted where the sugar packets, straws, napkins, etc. are kept says that Oren's is forming a partnership with some association (name escapes me) to assist the people in the "COFFEE GROWING REGIONS OF ACEH."

I guess that answers at least some questions about whether or not coffee growing areas or the market itself will be affected. I have not noticed any immediate or large price increases, although a couple prices do look like they've gone up recently, on coffees from that part of the world. As time marches on, we will be able to see more.

 

[Bloofington]

Today I went to the same Oren's location and found a letter from someone high up posted in the same place as yesterday's typed sign. I didn't read if it was from owner Oren Bloostein himself but it was apologizing for the increase in the price of Sumatran, which had gone up more than I realized and explaining why. It also adamantly said that they are making no money on it, and that although the coffee growing regions themselves were not affected, because of bridge, road and general infrastructure damage, it was extremely difficult getting the coffee to port for shipment.