# Cubans tighten border



## TonyBrooklyn (Jan 28, 2010)

_So far only for a month or so.

I imagine hoarding high prices diminished stock to follow._

https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/cuba-tightens-borders-as-coronavirus-cases-spread


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## bpegler (Mar 30, 2006)

It’s already stopped my ability to get custom rolls. But don’t worry too much, I have a few put back for just such of an emergency...

I’m not sure that we might see some regular production prices drop soon, because the world economy is taking a huge hit right now.

And cigars are luxury goods.


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## ebnash (Mar 5, 2017)

Hard to say what will happen, but hopefully if the vendors see panic buying, they will implement some sanity quickly. 

While the borders closing now impact those who are regularly buying custom rolls like Bob, I would imagine the vendor supply dip will be a month or so behind. 

I’m uncertain times, I’m less likely to spend on items like cigars and tobacco.


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## Perfecto Dave (Nov 24, 2009)

I feel for countries with limited resources in times like these. The ripple effect is yet to be seen but my feeling is it will not be good even for the countries that have the resources.


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## Bird-Dog (Oct 16, 2009)

bpegler said:


> It's already stopped my ability to get custom rolls. But don't worry too much, I have a few put back for just such of an emergency...
> 
> I'm not sure that we might see some regular production prices drop soon, because the world economy is taking a huge hit right now.
> 
> And cigars are luxury goods.


I find it unlikely that prices will drop, other than perhaps seeing price promotions from individual vendors trying to keep their revenues up in a temporary cash-crunch.

But, with the over all market supply reduced through factory closings/pauses we're more likely to see a spike in prices. While most people are aware of the rising-price effect of demand outstripping supply, and of course just the opposite when there is an over-supply situation, many/most are probably not aware of the effect of reduced supply AND reduced demand. In that situation, manufacturers and vendors must make up for reduced revenues by increasing margins, at least until some of them are forced out of business and the survivors inherit a larger slice of a smaller pie.


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## bpegler (Mar 30, 2006)

curmudgeonista said:


> I find it unlikely that prices will drop, other than perhaps seeing price promotions from individual vendors trying to keep their revenues up in a temporary cash-crunch.
> 
> But, with the over all market supply reduced through factory closings/pauses we're more likely to see a spike in prices. While most people are aware of the rising-price effect of demand outstripping supply, and of course just the opposite when there is an over-supply situation, many/most are probably not aware of the effect of reduced supply AND reduced demand. In that situation, manufacturers and vendors must make up for reduced revenues by increasing margins, at least until some of them are forced out of business and the survivors inherit a larger slice of a smaller pie.


I've been buying cigars in every recession since the dot com bubble burst, and every time prices have fallen. 
1)Partly this is because the dollar gains strength against other currencies in these periods. 
2)Nobody in Europe is buying cigars now. Spain is the largest market for Cuban cigars in the world, and they're getting devastated.
3)I can't imagine that we're not heading into a profound global recession.
4)Across the board, luxury goods will fall in value. I think the Rolex market is softening right now, for example.

I certainly hope that I'm wrong, and that this is just a short lived crisis without long term economic repercussions. That would be best for everyone.


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## Bird-Dog (Oct 16, 2009)

bpegler said:


> I've been buying cigars in every recession since the dot com bubble burst, and every time prices have fallen.
> 1)Partly this is because the dollar gains strength against other currencies in these periods.
> 2)Nobody in Europe is buying cigars now. Spain is the largest market for Cuban cigars in the world, and they're getting devastated.
> 3)I can't imagine that we're not heading into a profound global recession.
> ...


You may be right. But I will point out that the dot com bubble bursting coincides pretty closely with the demise of the 90's cigar boom, which initially created a glut of cigars on the market leading to a rather precipitous decline in the number of cigar vendors and manufacturers.

We are, perhaps, looking at a considerably different situation now - reduced supply vs reduced demand - though certainly the cigar market has quietly regained its momentum and you are arguably correct in assuming demand will eventually dwindle too. The question is: how much?

I understand that many cigar smokers may find themselves with less (or non-existent) discretionary income, but I'm not sure if enough will drop out of the game completely as to offset the likelihood of a reduced supply chain. IOW, the desire remains even if the means become challenging. I guess it just depends on how severely each side of the equation is affected.

In a purely academic sense, it will be interesting to see what happens. Though, of course, my sympathies go out to those who find themselves experiencing economic woes.


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## Cigary (Oct 19, 2007)

Economies tend to drive market pricing....this Virus is a bit different in that it affects businesses globally and goods and services survive in their ability to distinguish themselves with their competition....the inventive ones tend to survive and thrive because they have strategies that insulate them from changing times. They evolve and adapt before the bad times hit and once bad times hit they initiate their strategies while their competition implodes. 

Cigars are traditionally luxury items and there will always be a market for them as long as they are prepared for it. Established B&M's always keep good inventories and tend to capitalize the market with good pricing and deal in volume sales...esp. in a declining market because they prepared for the eventuality of things that happen like now. Volume sales and creative advertising/marketing keeps them going while others tend to close or marginalize their business and try to hang on. As some businesses close that leaves opportunity for the smart Cigar places to capitalize on bad times.....they absorb the soft market and swoop in and take over the market with inventory they keep....offer good deals .....free S/H.....coupons....etc....the smartest thing is the ability to change tactics on the fly. Since the Virus is now a problem getting people into their place of business will suffer but some owners i know around the country are creative by making membership more attractive by taking off 33% off deals,,...locker rentals at 40% off....buy any 5 cigars and get one free ( the free one can't be more than the most expensive one in the pak )....one B&M offered incentives for group buys...the more people that you bring to their business they would give away cigars along with a 10% off rate....example: bring 5 buddies with you and it goes up to 20% discount when they buy 5 or more. The idea is get consumers to pledge their patronage by incentivising sales ( volume tends to equalize cash flow...which keeps them in business... ).....offering these same deals online works just as well.

As far as CC's go.....pricing will rise and fall accordingly as to their economy....the worse theirs get you'll see their pricing adjust to demand.....just the way things work with supply/demand. It will be interesting in the next 6 months if things don't get better....put some cash aside and wait for some very attractive deals....I predict as much as 20% off. ( reporting from my library room )


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## TonyBrooklyn (Jan 28, 2010)

All i can say is if people are hoarding Food and toilet paper.
Check you local Market.
I Would imagine the rich will stock up on cigars.
As far as prices i will say the old rule of thumb comes into play.
Supply Vs Demand vs greedy vendors that will indeed Gouge.
As always YMMV.
Peace to all and may GOD help us all AMEN! :vs_cool:


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## Perfecto Dave (Nov 24, 2009)

All of that above ^^^^^ and the fact my last order isn't moving. Not buying till this virus crap is diminished and things flow freely thru the system again. Less of course I spot something on the secondary I just can't live without.:hungry:


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